It's hard to believe nerfing movement (to -20) doesn't cripple your former play style/habits.
Ok it does feel really dumb in some matchups... Mitsu has so much control now and Pat does so much damage with predicted backstep
Problem with this is it's pure theory. Baiting/predicting JG is just as effective as JGing. Point is, movement in the past was safe and now it's not. JGing has little correlation to how to move post-patch.
It's not pure theory. After a month and a half of using JG, I'm starting to be able to place my JG frames wherever I want to, while being safe (standing still and holding guard). It's very possible to do stuff like spacing a blocked poke, holding G for a little while, then throwing in a JG input at the timing of their back-step catcher, often guaranteeing a launch. At close range, JGing to catch fast attacks will force the opponent to delay their attacks.
Do that enough and you force them to stop trying to attack you right away to hit you out of backdashes or to hit you before you can move. Now you can move around! It just has to mixed in with standing still and JGing, which opens up
their movement.
My point is:
Not JGing is like playing rock paper scissors without the rock, the paper being movement and rock being attacking to stop movement.
About baiting and predicting JG... how is this "just as effective as JGing"? Doing it the safe way, it's hardly any different from standing still for a long time, which you're having to do anyway. Run-up side-throw is the hardest you can really punish this with, and you still have the same risks as before... they could see you run in and press buttons to stop you.
JG-attack can indeed be baiting and punished heavily with a delayed attack, but delay it too long and you'll get CH'd.
Though, you're half right, JG doesn't have a whole lot of bearing on movement in the long-range footsie-oriented "neutral game."